The Second IASTED African Conference on
Water Resource Management
~AfricaWRM 2008~
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
September 8 – 10, 2008
Gaborone, Botswana
TUTORIAL SESSION
Droughts in a Changing Climate Environment
Abstract
The objective of this tutorial is to examine the nature and causes of droughts, their measurement, monitoring, forecasting, and impacts both as a natural phenomenon and as a consequence of global warming. The African scene will be highlighted.
A drought is an extended period in which precipitation is insufficient to satisfy established water demands resulting in significant impairment to environmental and human systems. Based on this broad definition, we classify droughts as (1) natural when they derive from aberrant atmospheric mechanisms such as those responsible for major continental droughts that prevailed in the nineteen thirties, seventies and eighties or are part of intra-annual variability in the climate system, El Niño- Southern Oscillation, for example; and (2) anthropogenic when they are caused by human activities as experienced in inland basins such as Africa's Lake Chad and Europe's Aral basin. There are several subsets within the two categories including:
- Droughts driven or prolonged by a combination of human action and anomalous atmospheric circulation. The Sahel is a classic example of land use change-atmospheric drought advancing feedback systems.
- Global warming, which may be altering weather patterns everywhere. We will offer evidence of progressive increase in drought frequency from the poles towards the Equator linked to global warming.
The tutorial will cover the following topics.
- Fundamentals of drought science including water balance and atmospheric circulation
- The science of climate change and its drought implications
- Recovering data for past drought events
- Drought models and indices
- Drought monitoring and forecasting
- Evaluation of drought risk in the context of global warming
- Environmental consequences of droughts including land degradation, desertification and stream flow impacts
- Human dimensions of droughts economic downturn, food security and environmental refuge
The approach to these topics will include basic science, numerical modeling, remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Examples will be drawn mostly from Africa. The Kalahari Desert or Kgalagadi (as it is called in Botswana) and desertification in the Horn of Africa will be addressed.
Expected Background Knowledge
University training in natural and environmental science, and engineering (graduate and undergraduate) is highly recommended. It is also open to persons with some background in resource economics, sociology and geography. Planners and decision makers are encouraged to attend.
Objectives
The objective of the tutorial is to examine the nature and causes of droughts, their measurement, monitoring, forecasting and impacts both as a natural phenomenon and a consequence of global warming. It is designed to provide training in drought studies for students in water resources, engineering and environmental science as well as to stimulate discussion among professionals and policy makers in environmental management and planning.
Qualifications of the Instructor
- B.Sc (Physical Geography and Mathematics)
- Ph.D. (Climatology and Hydrology)
- D.Sc. (Honorary) Environmental Science
- Full Professor, Climatology and Hydrology
- Past Chairman, Commission on Climatology, International Geographical Union
- Director, Climate Centre, University of Calgary
- Environmental Consultant
